* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 62 67 73 76 78 84 85 84 85 84 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 62 67 73 76 78 84 85 84 85 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 39 48 54 55 56 57 58 61 63 67 70 74 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 4 2 2 6 11 12 16 15 9 9 15 12 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -1 -1 5 7 4 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 24 36 28 122 107 271 202 253 245 240 246 247 240 276 272 275 267 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 138 139 139 141 145 139 139 139 138 136 138 140 146 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 137 138 136 136 139 131 131 129 128 124 124 125 129 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 62 61 60 60 55 51 47 44 39 37 36 36 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 22 24 28 30 30 30 29 30 33 32 32 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 112 96 81 53 53 53 51 56 68 57 49 38 22 13 0 -16 47 200 MB DIV 117 103 93 84 86 80 81 22 35 46 31 13 -1 -12 9 -5 21 700-850 TADV -22 -19 -6 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 4 12 11 7 11 9 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 1718 1628 1547 1467 1396 1313 1274 1316 1382 1403 1407 1339 1262 1220 1216 1265 1334 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.1 16.2 17.4 18.8 20.2 21.7 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.5 40.8 42.0 43.3 45.3 47.0 48.4 49.7 50.9 52.2 53.4 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 12 12 21 42 33 21 22 30 35 36 23 23 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 32. 37. 43. 46. 48. 54. 55. 54. 55. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 38.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.29 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.63 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 16.8% 10.8% 7.2% 6.5% 10.8% 14.4% 28.2% Logistic: 4.5% 21.1% 11.1% 2.6% 0.8% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 12.4% 5.5% Consensus: 3.7% 13.4% 7.7% 3.3% 2.4% 5.7% 10.6% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 44 53 62 67 73 76 78 84 85 84 85 84 84 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 50 59 64 70 73 75 81 82 81 82 81 81 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 44 53 58 64 67 69 75 76 75 76 75 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 43 48 54 57 59 65 66 65 66 65 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT