* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 58 61 64 68 66 62 57 49 40 32 29 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 58 61 56 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 62 66 43 33 29 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 16 16 14 23 24 27 30 42 50 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -4 3 -1 0 -2 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 272 267 263 243 252 257 254 243 245 237 242 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.3 30.7 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 159 158 160 169 169 170 168 166 158 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 137 135 134 133 143 150 142 139 138 132 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 4 5 2 4 2 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 64 67 63 68 67 72 66 64 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 20 20 21 18 15 14 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 47 28 27 63 37 41 -26 -2 -3 24 -20 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 73 43 22 43 43 59 45 58 64 46 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 -3 0 12 6 14 12 9 -8 -9 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 223 190 117 44 0 1 -71 -196 -272 -361 -439 -346 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.4 30.1 31.0 32.1 33.1 33.9 34.6 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.5 87.4 88.1 88.8 89.8 90.3 90.4 89.8 88.8 87.1 84.9 82.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 35 59 63 39 29 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -16. -23. -31. -34. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. -0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 16. 12. 7. -1. -10. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.7 85.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.58 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 12.1% 15.8% Logistic: 1.7% 9.2% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 3.5% 5.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.5% 4.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4.7% 5.9% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 58 61 56 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 57 52 44 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 47 39 24 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 38 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT