* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 40 41 39 38 33 28 27 22 19 16 16 18 21 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 40 41 39 38 33 28 27 22 19 16 16 18 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 45 44 42 39 34 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 14 13 15 15 18 14 11 9 8 11 15 16 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 0 0 7 0 1 1 0 0 -4 -5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 34 36 33 39 70 59 87 93 133 199 196 206 194 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.4 24.1 24.0 24.5 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 144 143 140 133 121 117 116 113 105 102 101 107 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 66 62 60 56 54 53 48 44 39 34 28 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 17 15 13 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 43 46 37 49 37 45 39 37 34 22 18 23 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 38 36 24 17 19 5 -7 -27 -8 -12 -9 -12 -17 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 1 5 7 7 7 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 758 773 798 824 841 899 980 1034 1084 1148 1243 1347 1477 1629 1776 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.1 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.9 120.3 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.6 128.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -13. -18. -21. -24. -24. -22. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 114.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.15 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 12.7% 12.2% 10.2% 0.0% 13.7% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.4% 4.1% 3.4% 0.0% 4.6% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##