* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162020 09/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 40 42 43 44 43 40 38 35 32 27 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 40 42 43 44 43 40 38 35 32 27 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 41 42 41 38 34 29 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 16 10 11 13 15 13 11 10 10 10 15 15 14 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 3 2 2 -1 3 4 0 0 2 3 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 42 33 33 49 43 62 79 77 112 118 157 190 191 196 190 187 185 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.7 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.2 24.5 24.3 24.1 24.8 24.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 144 141 137 129 119 116 114 113 106 104 102 110 109 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 67 65 60 59 55 54 52 50 48 42 38 34 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 21 23 23 23 22 21 19 17 15 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 50 37 39 39 34 22 35 19 27 26 27 12 7 2 10 200 MB DIV 72 65 44 27 15 18 6 4 -30 -15 -7 0 -9 -4 -1 -3 -3 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -8 -1 -2 -1 -5 1 0 5 6 8 8 9 5 6 0 LAND (KM) 731 726 732 756 779 825 902 973 1024 1077 1156 1258 1373 1499 1665 1874 2075 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.5 116.2 117.8 119.3 120.5 121.7 123.0 124.2 125.5 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 11 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 14. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. -0. -3. -8. -8. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 113.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 SIXTEEN 09/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.14 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.81 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 16.5% 14.3% 11.6% 0.0% 15.8% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.7% 4.8% 3.9% 0.0% 5.3% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 SIXTEEN 09/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##