* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 76 80 87 93 97 93 84 74 70 57 46 35 24 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 76 80 87 93 97 93 84 74 70 57 46 35 24 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 77 82 91 97 95 84 71 58 49 40 35 34 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 4 6 4 14 29 42 48 50 38 27 24 33 47 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 0 5 10 3 8 4 1 0 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 187 117 151 320 336 233 216 205 227 233 251 252 254 283 304 330 343 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.3 25.2 25.3 23.7 20.7 21.1 20.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 144 142 139 141 135 136 137 130 109 109 96 81 82 81 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 125 122 118 118 116 117 118 111 93 91 81 71 71 71 72 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.6 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 36 38 38 44 39 34 32 27 26 30 34 41 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 30 31 34 39 38 36 35 36 30 27 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 42 28 9 13 37 46 43 31 6 -19 -37 -63 -61 -54 -57 200 MB DIV 7 -5 -8 -21 7 50 70 107 65 35 -17 -15 -20 -14 -43 -69 -61 700-850 TADV 13 5 1 0 -1 7 4 -8 -25 -11 -63 -17 -18 -2 -2 1 5 LAND (KM) 1317 1331 1358 1262 1157 1046 954 918 895 753 745 859 1022 1187 1346 1511 1685 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.1 31.8 33.5 35.3 36.9 38.5 40.1 41.5 42.8 43.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.4 62.5 63.3 64.1 64.1 62.2 59.0 55.2 51.0 47.2 43.7 40.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 9 13 16 18 17 16 13 11 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 24 22 18 27 15 18 26 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 10. 9. 6. 4. 4. -4. -10. -14. -17. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 28. 32. 28. 19. 9. 5. -8. -19. -30. -41. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.1 60.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.94 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 612.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.8% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 10.5% 10.0% 2.2% 0.4% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.5% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 9.6% 8.6% 0.9% 0.1% 6.3% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 7( 13) 10( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 73 76 80 87 93 97 93 84 74 70 57 46 35 24 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 75 82 88 92 88 79 69 65 52 41 30 19 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 68 75 81 85 81 72 62 58 45 34 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 66 72 76 72 63 53 49 36 25 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT