* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 56 63 66 64 63 60 58 54 49 45 43 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 32 35 40 48 55 58 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 29 28 33 38 42 47 50 51 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 11 10 9 14 21 19 24 26 36 47 57 51 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 -4 -5 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 -5 -8 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 336 318 323 309 302 312 261 253 229 254 248 257 243 254 251 259 262 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.3 30.4 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 165 171 171 163 157 156 156 159 167 169 169 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 145 155 156 141 133 130 129 132 138 149 151 151 149 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 4 6 2 5 2 7 3 7 0 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 60 59 65 60 59 57 61 63 58 55 57 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 13 22 22 -8 23 9 31 -16 -26 -54 -36 -62 -71 -100 -69 200 MB DIV 6 6 5 11 29 8 69 8 28 -1 20 10 33 0 19 -16 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -1 0 3 -1 2 -1 3 1 3 -3 1 2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 84 -5 -38 8 51 162 112 108 61 38 -21 -63 -176 -286 -392 -490 -580 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.9 28.8 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.9 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.3 81.1 82.0 82.9 84.5 85.8 86.9 87.8 88.6 89.5 90.5 91.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 57 49 29 63 87 30 27 29 29 33 31 6 6 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. -15. -23. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 26. 33. 36. 34. 33. 30. 28. 25. 19. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 79.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.77 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.92 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.7% 11.8% 9.1% 8.1% 11.8% 16.8% 28.7% Logistic: 8.9% 42.3% 30.6% 23.6% 12.1% 42.3% 56.7% 53.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 7.6% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 3.1% 0.3% Consensus: 5.3% 22.5% 15.1% 11.0% 6.8% 18.3% 25.6% 27.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 32 35 40 48 55 58 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 32 35 40 48 55 58 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 45 52 55 53 42 30 26 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 36 43 46 44 33 21 17 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT