* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 58 65 73 81 90 96 98 96 91 86 78 69 54 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 58 65 73 81 90 96 98 96 91 86 78 69 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 57 62 70 80 88 92 90 84 77 69 64 56 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 28 21 19 3 3 5 0 9 22 33 31 24 33 44 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 0 -3 2 -3 -2 -3 0 7 1 1 1 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 212 207 204 192 191 212 336 348 76 207 203 218 200 199 208 220 219 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.0 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.8 27.1 20.2 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 146 151 156 159 152 141 140 140 136 135 130 135 126 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 132 135 139 142 134 120 117 116 114 114 109 112 104 72 70 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -50.6 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -50.0 -49.8 -50.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 45 44 41 40 38 38 46 42 41 40 42 35 26 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 25 26 29 31 33 36 39 40 41 41 41 41 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 96 88 80 71 59 38 28 9 7 41 52 29 15 -14 19 39 -118 200 MB DIV 13 -2 8 2 11 3 4 9 38 55 99 91 80 64 86 29 26 700-850 TADV 18 18 13 11 12 5 2 0 0 2 0 2 5 16 30 23 -49 LAND (KM) 1451 1401 1361 1336 1324 1310 1329 1221 1087 987 936 893 880 835 674 552 530 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.1 28.5 29.8 31.2 32.6 34.1 35.4 36.7 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.2 55.1 56.1 57.0 59.2 61.7 63.7 64.5 64.1 62.5 59.9 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 9 8 8 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 35 35 26 27 30 24 20 26 25 14 15 15 22 25 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 35. 41. 43. 41. 36. 31. 23. 14. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.2 53.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.48 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.7% 7.4% 6.4% 0.0% 8.9% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 2.4% 2.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.6% 3.1% 2.6% 0.2% 3.8% 4.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 56 58 65 73 81 90 96 98 96 91 86 78 69 54 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 57 64 72 80 89 95 97 95 90 85 77 68 53 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 60 68 76 85 91 93 91 86 81 73 64 49 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 54 62 70 79 85 87 85 80 75 67 58 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT