* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 43 44 42 43 44 43 45 46 46 47 49 52 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 43 44 42 43 44 43 45 46 46 47 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 41 42 45 47 46 44 42 40 38 39 41 43 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 2 5 12 22 26 30 21 17 9 9 9 9 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 0 2 4 4 7 5 5 1 1 0 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 39 77 256 308 314 304 301 304 297 320 26 21 57 20 357 321 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 118 116 114 121 127 127 130 131 130 131 136 139 140 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 109 107 105 110 114 110 111 110 110 111 115 117 118 117 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 56 53 53 52 52 56 59 62 53 48 41 38 38 40 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 10 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 52 42 18 -16 -37 -87 -87 -79 -102 -97 -99 -93 -83 -45 -24 200 MB DIV -4 -15 -13 -13 -21 3 -8 9 -1 -13 -35 -8 -13 0 -6 10 -3 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 8 2 0 10 8 19 8 1 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 2196 2214 2179 2161 2149 2194 2220 2155 2140 2125 2075 1983 1899 1824 1798 1829 1768 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.9 24.5 25.8 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.0 40.0 41.0 42.0 43.9 45.3 46.4 46.9 47.3 48.0 49.1 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 6 4 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 1 2 0 0 5 16 16 17 15 14 19 26 26 26 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -10. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 38.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.89 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.38 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.2% 9.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 11.7% 8.2% 1.3% 0.5% 2.7% 2.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.4% 5.8% 2.8% 0.2% 0.9% 4.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 42 43 44 42 43 44 43 45 46 46 47 49 52 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 42 43 41 42 43 42 44 45 45 46 48 51 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 39 40 38 39 40 39 41 42 42 43 45 48 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 33 31 32 33 32 34 35 35 36 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT