* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 39 42 45 52 63 71 80 84 88 87 83 80 79 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 39 42 45 52 63 71 80 84 88 87 83 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 39 37 36 36 40 47 57 70 81 88 88 85 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 43 39 31 28 26 17 9 5 4 4 4 14 19 20 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 6 8 4 -2 0 -3 -4 -1 2 5 3 0 5 5 SHEAR DIR 218 226 230 217 214 210 189 210 176 348 18 242 212 220 205 222 207 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 137 142 151 158 161 155 151 147 147 142 135 135 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 123 124 129 137 143 143 135 129 123 122 119 113 112 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 7 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 54 53 49 47 46 46 46 49 55 56 53 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 20 20 22 22 25 28 30 34 34 37 40 41 42 45 850 MB ENV VOR 100 94 95 95 98 86 64 49 44 30 21 37 50 41 69 68 82 200 MB DIV 7 -1 14 26 28 12 12 21 16 17 34 36 95 86 106 111 114 700-850 TADV 15 9 7 6 9 10 12 10 9 -5 3 3 3 10 5 11 8 LAND (KM) 1727 1639 1554 1477 1406 1301 1255 1223 1218 1275 1139 1078 1064 1034 1003 1008 990 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.9 26.5 27.8 28.8 29.8 31.0 32.2 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.6 50.6 51.5 52.5 53.4 55.3 57.3 59.6 61.9 63.8 64.8 64.8 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 6 7 9 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 27 28 33 35 30 34 28 25 23 30 34 13 14 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -1. 1. 5. 7. 11. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -3. -0. 7. 18. 26. 35. 39. 43. 42. 38. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.9 49.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 41 39 39 42 45 52 63 71 80 84 88 87 83 80 79 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 40 43 46 53 64 72 81 85 89 88 84 81 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 39 42 45 52 63 71 80 84 88 87 83 80 79 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 41 48 59 67 76 80 84 83 79 76 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT