* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 45 43 40 40 39 42 45 54 64 70 74 77 73 72 73 V (KT) LAND 50 49 45 43 40 40 39 42 45 54 64 70 74 77 73 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 44 42 40 38 38 41 47 57 69 77 83 84 83 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 32 38 37 34 26 24 18 15 9 0 6 3 14 17 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 0 5 5 0 1 -3 -2 -4 2 6 6 0 4 SHEAR DIR 231 220 224 225 229 217 215 197 204 181 140 107 211 226 262 250 235 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 134 136 140 148 152 156 163 150 145 142 141 137 130 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 121 122 123 126 133 138 141 144 130 122 118 119 117 110 109 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 52 55 54 55 56 57 55 52 51 51 52 54 62 64 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 19 18 20 19 21 22 25 29 31 33 36 36 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 110 108 107 107 104 98 93 71 52 45 30 12 30 32 12 65 78 200 MB DIV 10 12 15 4 13 32 27 19 8 20 29 44 26 54 65 106 99 700-850 TADV 7 11 8 6 2 7 6 10 15 10 -1 -3 -2 -5 6 9 10 LAND (KM) 1738 1676 1618 1539 1447 1317 1229 1186 1174 1186 1249 1239 1180 1192 1152 1163 1155 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.6 22.3 23.4 24.8 26.5 28.0 29.3 30.4 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.4 50.4 51.3 52.3 53.8 55.2 56.6 58.5 60.7 62.6 64.0 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 11 12 11 10 6 6 9 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 17 24 38 39 35 29 33 41 24 22 21 25 17 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -3. 3. 4. 6. 10. 8. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -8. -5. 4. 14. 20. 24. 27. 23. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.8 48.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 45 43 40 40 39 42 45 54 64 70 74 77 73 72 73 18HR AGO 50 49 45 43 40 40 39 42 45 54 64 70 74 77 73 72 73 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 41 40 43 46 55 65 71 75 78 74 73 74 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 37 36 39 42 51 61 67 71 74 70 69 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT