* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 43 41 38 36 34 33 39 44 52 54 57 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 43 41 38 36 34 33 39 44 52 54 57 59 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 44 42 38 35 33 33 34 37 43 49 54 61 67 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 35 34 35 36 31 29 24 24 20 18 15 15 8 17 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 2 2 0 4 1 2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 9 SHEAR DIR 234 232 227 222 221 221 208 209 192 187 183 124 147 145 226 239 238 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.6 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 134 134 133 134 139 147 155 161 162 149 142 141 138 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 123 122 121 121 124 132 140 144 143 128 119 117 114 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 56 54 54 55 53 49 44 40 42 45 48 46 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 18 16 17 16 15 16 18 21 22 23 25 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 112 104 94 101 99 90 97 86 71 57 38 20 8 40 26 35 47 200 MB DIV 31 8 0 29 1 11 13 1 20 -4 0 19 5 40 27 67 60 700-850 TADV 5 5 8 7 3 2 5 6 8 12 10 4 -1 -7 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1795 1733 1671 1615 1526 1377 1278 1220 1186 1191 1224 1300 1217 1185 1142 1127 1112 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.5 22.0 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.2 28.6 29.9 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.5 53.1 54.4 55.7 57.3 59.2 61.2 63.1 63.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 11 12 11 9 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 20 27 35 31 32 29 35 33 24 21 23 29 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -18. -17. -16. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -12. -11. -8. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -11. -6. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.6 47.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 46 43 41 38 36 34 33 39 44 52 54 57 59 60 60 18HR AGO 50 49 47 44 42 39 37 35 34 40 45 53 55 58 60 61 61 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 38 36 34 33 39 44 52 54 57 59 60 60 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 35 33 31 30 36 41 49 51 54 56 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT