* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 48 51 52 50 50 46 43 43 37 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 48 51 52 50 50 46 43 43 37 33 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 53 53 52 49 46 41 37 34 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 10 12 4 10 17 21 33 33 41 24 24 24 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 1 -4 -5 -2 0 3 6 5 4 0 7 7 2 8 0 SHEAR DIR 68 84 79 88 106 153 273 291 295 302 307 303 312 346 5 26 343 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 117 120 121 120 117 117 130 133 132 132 133 135 138 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 109 111 112 111 108 107 117 117 112 111 110 112 116 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 67 65 66 58 62 63 66 66 63 58 51 46 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 18 17 16 16 14 14 14 14 15 13 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 112 110 97 91 68 63 61 33 -14 -34 -52 -71 -70 -86 -80 -83 -62 200 MB DIV 18 15 3 2 4 -3 -15 -5 12 -5 14 -18 -23 -40 -42 -28 19 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 1 0 6 7 5 10 42 21 23 -1 -18 -16 -15 -14 LAND (KM) 1605 1716 1818 1914 2012 2208 2249 2276 2381 2379 2260 2166 2101 2066 2067 2099 2048 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.7 24.5 26.2 27.5 28.3 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.2 33.2 34.2 35.2 36.2 38.2 40.1 41.9 43.3 44.2 44.7 45.0 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 5 4 2 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 3 5 6 8 1 1 13 13 12 15 19 19 16 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -11. -12. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 17. 15. 15. 11. 8. 8. 2. -2. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 32.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.88 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.1% 10.3% 7.9% 0.0% 10.2% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 19.2% 10.4% 2.5% 1.5% 11.1% 9.2% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 4.4% 13.1% 7.2% 3.5% 0.5% 7.4% 7.4% 1.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 48 51 52 50 50 46 43 43 37 33 33 35 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 45 48 49 47 47 43 40 40 34 30 30 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 39 42 43 41 41 37 34 34 28 24 24 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 34 35 33 33 29 26 26 20 16 16 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT