* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 36 41 48 55 56 59 60 59 V (KT) LAND 50 49 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 36 41 48 55 56 59 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 43 38 35 33 32 32 35 40 48 55 62 68 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 34 36 36 35 35 25 27 22 19 16 10 14 6 11 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 1 1 4 2 0 1 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 228 234 233 228 223 230 212 216 194 204 188 183 141 145 174 237 258 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 134 133 133 134 134 141 150 161 164 155 146 141 138 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 122 122 121 120 121 127 136 144 146 134 123 116 114 111 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 54 55 57 57 53 48 46 45 48 51 54 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 19 17 17 17 16 16 17 19 22 23 25 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 104 108 103 95 95 93 99 95 83 66 51 29 11 22 43 24 15 200 MB DIV 46 32 -2 -3 21 -14 47 4 22 11 2 23 16 29 45 32 61 700-850 TADV 14 7 3 5 8 0 5 6 6 11 13 6 0 -9 -10 4 11 LAND (KM) 1795 1776 1714 1652 1595 1452 1341 1257 1204 1198 1236 1308 1338 1222 1146 1103 1064 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.4 22.1 23.2 24.7 26.4 28.0 29.5 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.8 48.8 49.7 50.6 52.2 53.5 54.8 56.3 58.0 59.7 61.4 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 11 11 11 10 8 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 14 16 19 37 33 31 31 33 35 25 26 21 30 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -14. -9. -2. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.3 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 36 41 48 55 56 59 60 59 18HR AGO 50 49 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 36 41 48 55 56 59 60 59 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 36 41 48 55 56 59 60 59 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 34 32 30 30 33 38 45 52 53 56 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT