* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 46 48 49 48 43 41 39 38 32 28 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 46 48 49 48 43 41 39 38 32 28 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 43 46 49 51 50 48 45 42 38 34 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 13 11 8 11 18 25 34 38 38 41 36 30 27 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 0 -5 -4 0 2 8 4 2 0 -5 0 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 71 68 78 76 86 166 262 266 289 285 301 296 302 324 359 7 5 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 115 118 120 118 118 116 130 132 132 133 133 132 130 129 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 111 109 111 112 109 109 105 116 116 113 111 111 109 107 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 66 67 65 62 61 63 63 61 59 55 52 51 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 11 12 13 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 120 120 115 99 101 64 54 44 4 -33 -80 -82 -92 -65 -74 -85 -109 200 MB DIV -7 11 8 -1 -10 8 -16 8 10 9 -5 -13 -29 -42 -64 -18 -7 700-850 TADV 1 -1 2 1 -2 6 12 18 19 27 26 3 0 -5 -9 -18 -14 LAND (KM) 1472 1600 1727 1837 1943 2134 2320 2374 2501 2394 2230 2138 2081 2073 2120 2228 2331 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.2 21.5 23.2 25.1 26.9 28.4 29.4 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.1 33.3 34.4 35.5 37.5 39.4 41.0 42.0 42.5 42.7 42.4 41.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 5 5 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 3 1 3 6 6 2 0 20 19 12 12 14 13 11 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -14. -15. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 8. 6. 4. 3. -3. -7. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.5 31.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.9% 10.2% 8.0% 6.7% 10.1% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 20.6% 12.8% 4.7% 3.1% 19.3% 20.3% 5.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 7.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 6.4% 14.3% 8.4% 4.4% 3.3% 10.5% 11.1% 1.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 41 42 46 48 49 48 43 41 39 38 32 28 25 26 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 42 44 45 44 39 37 35 34 28 24 21 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 37 39 40 39 34 32 30 29 23 19 16 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 32 33 32 27 25 23 22 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT