* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 44 41 37 33 33 31 30 33 36 38 36 33 34 34 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 44 41 37 33 33 31 30 33 36 38 36 33 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 43 40 36 33 31 30 31 32 35 37 39 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 30 34 35 36 29 26 23 24 16 18 19 27 27 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 1 1 3 0 7 1 3 0 3 0 5 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 230 226 231 229 227 224 221 212 207 197 189 163 133 143 148 196 234 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 131 133 133 134 136 137 149 155 159 166 151 146 141 138 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 120 122 121 122 122 124 135 140 140 145 129 122 117 115 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 56 53 54 56 56 54 49 45 43 44 47 52 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 20 19 18 17 18 16 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 111 103 100 100 99 103 95 68 54 35 14 5 26 7 -15 200 MB DIV 57 64 28 -7 -6 6 16 25 3 14 3 4 16 24 42 33 21 700-850 TADV 15 9 4 2 2 0 0 6 4 9 7 7 8 2 -4 2 11 LAND (KM) 1773 1758 1747 1685 1626 1516 1384 1272 1195 1164 1177 1220 1299 1295 1213 1108 991 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.0 21.5 22.4 23.8 25.4 26.9 28.3 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.1 48.0 48.9 49.8 51.5 52.9 54.3 55.8 57.4 59.0 60.6 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 11 13 15 26 42 31 32 29 35 37 25 25 21 34 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -18. -17. -18. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -17. -19. -20. -17. -14. -12. -14. -17. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.7 46.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 44 41 37 33 33 31 30 33 36 38 36 33 34 34 18HR AGO 50 49 47 44 41 37 33 33 31 30 33 36 38 36 33 34 34 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 40 36 32 32 30 29 32 35 37 35 32 33 33 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 33 29 29 27 26 29 32 34 32 29 30 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT