* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 37 38 43 47 47 46 42 37 40 40 35 29 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 37 38 43 47 47 46 42 37 40 40 35 29 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 43 45 45 42 39 37 35 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 11 11 8 8 20 29 33 42 31 39 33 37 39 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 -1 -5 1 4 7 6 -1 0 -4 1 2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 77 62 61 62 62 133 239 271 293 291 303 301 308 308 335 350 352 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.1 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 117 117 118 119 118 115 131 132 133 132 128 125 123 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 111 110 111 111 109 105 117 116 113 110 106 104 103 102 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 64 65 67 67 65 62 67 64 63 57 51 51 52 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 16 15 16 14 12 11 10 13 14 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 104 118 121 110 98 86 60 38 6 -40 -83 -86 -85 -48 -39 -54 -83 200 MB DIV 5 0 11 10 -3 -11 -18 19 7 15 -10 24 -28 -24 -62 -30 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 1 8 21 18 23 23 4 4 2 -6 -13 -16 LAND (KM) 1351 1489 1628 1759 1874 2085 2280 2397 2536 2352 2205 2159 2179 2236 2317 2257 2196 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.9 20.0 21.4 23.2 25.3 27.4 28.9 29.8 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.1 32.4 33.6 34.8 37.0 39.0 40.6 41.7 42.2 42.0 40.9 40.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 1 1 4 5 2 0 21 15 12 15 10 6 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -13. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 8. 13. 17. 17. 16. 12. 7. 10. 10. 5. -1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 29.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.1% 9.7% 7.7% 6.7% 9.8% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 18.7% 13.8% 8.4% 4.5% 17.7% 14.1% 4.8% Bayesian: 2.4% 5.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 6.4% 12.7% 8.6% 5.6% 3.8% 9.6% 8.2% 1.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 37 38 43 47 47 46 42 37 40 40 35 29 25 24 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 34 39 43 43 42 38 33 36 36 31 25 21 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 35 39 39 38 34 29 32 32 27 21 17 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 30 30 29 25 20 23 23 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT