* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 60 58 53 46 40 37 33 31 30 34 35 38 40 40 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 60 58 53 46 40 37 33 31 30 34 35 38 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 63 62 57 51 45 40 36 33 32 32 33 34 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 20 20 31 37 35 33 32 27 31 20 23 13 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -2 2 3 -2 0 0 1 -1 -4 -5 -5 -7 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 222 217 222 232 228 225 220 225 230 221 214 200 197 190 183 185 177 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 124 124 125 125 127 134 137 148 155 162 160 161 151 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 114 114 114 114 113 115 121 124 133 138 143 140 139 130 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 61 60 58 55 57 56 53 51 46 43 41 40 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 21 20 18 15 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 110 118 122 108 110 100 92 95 102 103 81 60 31 20 1 -21 -24 200 MB DIV 65 92 74 58 43 31 -17 -4 21 -6 -8 18 -4 -1 -10 -4 7 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 7 9 -1 0 -1 0 0 5 3 4 1 6 0 1 LAND (KM) 1798 1797 1800 1793 1792 1756 1643 1558 1429 1305 1206 1147 1139 1157 1204 1284 1225 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.7 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 43.6 44.2 45.0 45.9 47.8 49.5 51.0 52.5 54.0 55.5 57.0 58.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 8 6 8 17 39 33 34 31 35 39 35 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -20. -21. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -9. -15. -18. -22. -24. -25. -21. -20. -17. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 43.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 16.5% 11.2% 8.8% 7.3% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 10.2% 4.1% 2.2% 1.0% 3.9% 2.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 6.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 9.6% 5.2% 3.8% 2.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 59 60 58 53 46 40 37 33 31 30 34 35 38 40 40 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 54 49 42 36 33 29 27 26 30 31 34 36 36 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 50 45 38 32 29 25 23 22 26 27 30 32 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 38 31 25 22 18 16 15 19 20 23 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT