* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 54 49 46 44 42 41 40 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 54 49 46 44 42 41 40 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 49 50 49 45 41 37 35 33 33 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 11 12 17 14 25 27 24 24 24 21 24 16 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 1 3 1 1 2 2 4 3 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 183 187 205 245 245 227 218 222 218 227 242 224 221 202 213 207 215 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 128 128 128 128 132 135 137 144 144 146 152 156 161 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 114 115 117 117 118 122 124 126 131 131 131 136 137 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 63 62 60 59 56 57 57 58 57 54 49 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 18 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 100 102 105 93 100 116 104 97 95 92 90 86 68 53 20 1 -18 200 MB DIV 32 37 33 33 41 56 36 14 -10 -5 14 -3 0 18 -7 7 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 2 -2 -1 0 0 3 4 2 6 3 LAND (KM) 1765 1756 1748 1739 1731 1725 1708 1680 1585 1451 1334 1205 1106 1038 1008 1012 1046 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.6 21.2 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.1 42.4 42.7 43.1 43.5 44.7 46.2 47.9 49.7 51.6 53.2 54.6 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 8 10 11 12 16 27 44 44 36 34 29 35 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 19. 14. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 42.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.79 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.4% 9.8% 7.7% 6.3% 9.8% 11.0% 14.8% Logistic: 2.8% 16.5% 8.2% 4.1% 1.8% 10.0% 7.8% 12.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 10.5% 6.1% 3.9% 2.7% 6.7% 6.4% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 54 49 46 44 42 41 40 40 43 45 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 45 48 50 45 42 40 38 37 36 36 39 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 43 45 40 37 35 33 32 31 31 34 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 34 36 31 28 26 24 23 22 22 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT