* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 33 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 33 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 23 20 15 11 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 71 78 92 99 119 123 114 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 134 129 123 116 108 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 72 73 68 58 52 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 13 13 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 24 4 -14 -5 13 40 33 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 13 -7 -7 14 16 19 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -7 -5 -5 -1 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 665 604 538 476 421 378 373 335 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.5 22.2 23.4 24.3 25.0 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.2 115.1 115.2 115.3 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 6 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -23. -32. -37. -39. -40. -40. -40. -40. -39. -38. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.4 115.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/29/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##