* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 26 25 23 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 31 28 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 16 18 25 32 44 54 58 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 3 4 7 0 6 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 264 265 261 246 234 208 231 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 28.3 28.4 27.6 18.6 19.4 15.1 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 170 145 147 137 82 84 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 151 130 133 126 78 79 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.3 1.2 3.1 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 5 4 8 6 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 56 47 44 46 47 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 9 7 9 8 9 19 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 77 88 105 125 194 172 192 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 34 3 9 24 35 85 54 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 56 24 -7 29 -20 -119 -129 -66 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -751 -733 -601 -373 -142 125 159 -31 509 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 37.9 38.3 38.8 39.3 41.2 44.0 48.3 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.2 85.6 82.9 79.8 76.6 68.6 60.1 54.1 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 21 23 25 29 33 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 890 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 5. -6. -18. -27. -37. -46. -54. -66. -73. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. 4. -3. -7. -13. -18. -25. -35. -41. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 37.5 88.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.83 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.5% 6.4% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/29/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 28 29 31 28 32 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 25 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 21 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT