* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 34 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 34 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 43 38 31 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 22 22 22 25 26 19 20 17 12 17 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 6 4 0 0 2 4 4 5 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 63 61 66 67 75 84 107 123 114 99 94 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.6 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 147 146 138 128 122 119 117 117 118 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 68 70 72 71 71 61 55 49 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 17 18 17 14 11 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 93 83 83 62 33 10 21 39 47 41 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 61 57 63 63 6 11 3 32 1 -21 -13 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -10 -7 -2 1 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 791 737 687 637 545 449 391 405 457 509 558 595 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.3 115.0 114.8 114.6 114.4 114.5 115.0 115.7 116.4 117.0 117.5 118.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 12 11 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -12. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -36. -36. -36. -34. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##