* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 40 34 31 31 36 35 32 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 43 36 32 30 28 28 29 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 42 35 31 29 28 28 33 34 30 29 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 14 15 18 27 43 72 81 77 57 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -1 4 2 7 0 -3 4 -6 -8 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 255 273 284 283 273 240 235 225 221 229 229 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 30.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.1 28.3 22.1 18.8 16.5 12.2 13.3 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 163 165 166 158 147 94 82 76 69 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 157 137 139 143 141 135 87 77 72 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.4 -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -50.7 -49.6 -48.4 -47.9 -47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 6 4 11 4 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 61 62 68 61 51 50 54 55 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 21 20 18 15 13 10 10 13 18 15 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -46 -69 -28 10 35 98 185 204 193 178 178 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 39 27 30 24 50 29 44 61 69 42 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 20 10 6 48 23 -69 14 -70 -88 -99 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -348 -448 -551 -618 -670 -682 -261 85 32 -68 277 693 1042 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.1 35.2 36.0 36.7 37.9 38.9 40.8 44.3 48.2 51.1 53.0 54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.8 92.2 91.6 90.4 89.1 84.5 78.2 70.7 63.3 56.7 50.8 45.5 40.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 16 22 28 31 31 27 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 4 4 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 15 CX,CY: 3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -13. -23. -34. -43. -48. -56. -62. -65. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -15. -21. -22. -19. -11. -8. -8. -8. -3. -1. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -13. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -18. -22. -19. -15. -20. -25. -32. -31. -31. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -15. -21. -24. -24. -19. -20. -23. -27. -26. -40. -50. -65. -76. -88. -97. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.9 92.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -75.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 43 36 32 30 28 28 29 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 47 43 41 39 39 40 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 45 43 43 44 40 40 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 41 42 38 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT