* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 39 37 35 33 33 32 32 32 31 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 39 37 35 33 33 32 32 32 31 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 39 37 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 21 20 21 18 18 12 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 5 2 -1 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 70 71 63 55 57 64 86 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.9 26.4 25.9 26.3 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 146 143 127 122 126 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.1 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 8 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 76 73 78 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 49 55 52 53 62 53 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 74 88 82 58 46 40 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -13 -4 -7 -6 -15 -15 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 126 127 183 261 91 179 293 406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.1 22.5 22.4 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.4 106.8 107.5 108.1 109.8 111.8 113.5 115.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 24 21 18 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 106.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.58 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##