* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP132020 08/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 43 41 41 41 39 34 29 30 30 30 30 31 33 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 43 41 41 41 39 34 29 30 30 30 30 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 41 38 36 33 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 30 24 25 23 19 27 21 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 3 3 5 5 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 73 77 70 64 78 78 88 91 78 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 27.7 26.4 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 148 150 140 126 122 123 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.2 -50.9 -50.3 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 5 7 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 77 79 79 78 78 78 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 13 12 13 14 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 16 26 21 52 57 65 81 67 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 101 89 64 83 47 77 60 59 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -7 -8 -6 -5 0 -6 -6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 354 297 257 222 213 271 213 126 166 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.0 19.2 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 106.9 106.5 106.5 106.5 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.3 111.5 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 5 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 17 19 11 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -22. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.70 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##