* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 82 84 84 80 75 69 68 61 62 60 51 41 30 21 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 82 84 84 45 32 29 28 28 32 30 21 24 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 76 82 86 89 92 48 33 29 28 28 33 37 37 31 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 9 13 9 21 25 18 15 23 29 40 64 65 70 72 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 1 0 3 4 2 2 5 2 3 2 -7 -9 -7 -11 SHEAR DIR 21 351 303 305 285 262 257 270 265 256 242 238 213 216 229 252 248 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.9 31.8 30.8 30.0 30.1 28.4 23.9 16.6 19.2 15.3 12.6 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 172 172 172 172 172 172 175 147 103 76 82 73 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 163 165 161 155 169 172 160 149 156 133 94 73 76 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 -50.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 12 10 12 7 10 5 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 61 61 58 56 55 62 63 55 54 52 57 49 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 26 23 19 14 14 10 13 18 17 17 16 19 850 MB ENV VOR 46 41 15 0 -11 -63 -45 -105 -19 29 115 196 211 183 151 145 121 200 MB DIV 35 53 33 29 40 26 26 22 21 52 41 65 85 76 79 41 18 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -5 1 4 29 2 37 4 39 51 -30 36 -14 -60 -44 -61 LAND (KM) 303 389 378 290 235 19 -258 -495 -615 -672 -360 61 119 20 -38 423 794 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.6 27.4 29.6 32.1 34.4 36.1 37.3 38.6 40.2 42.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.9 90.2 91.2 92.2 93.4 93.5 92.5 89.7 85.4 79.7 72.9 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 13 16 21 25 27 27 26 24 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 55 59 69 54 40 45 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -12. -20. -28. -36. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -17. -19. -25. -22. -16. -17. -17. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 10. 5. -1. -2. -9. -8. -10. -19. -29. -40. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.3 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.61 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.64 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.22 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 37.3% 26.6% 20.3% 12.8% 16.4% 13.2% 16.0% Logistic: 14.2% 34.4% 24.2% 26.4% 15.0% 25.8% 14.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 21.5% 35.4% 14.1% 1.7% 0.3% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.4% 35.7% 21.6% 16.2% 9.4% 15.3% 9.3% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 9( 19) 9( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 79 82 84 84 45 32 29 28 28 32 30 21 24 17 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 73 76 78 78 39 26 23 22 22 26 24 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 71 71 32 19 16 15 15 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 62 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT