* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 60 66 72 74 72 67 62 58 53 50 43 32 21 V (KT) LAND 50 52 51 54 57 64 70 63 39 31 28 27 28 29 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 53 55 61 66 70 39 30 28 27 28 32 32 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 14 10 10 8 19 22 21 21 27 34 57 70 92 101 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 5 7 0 1 2 1 0 3 7 -1 -7 -3 -17 -19 SHEAR DIR 5 3 5 15 34 310 290 263 252 273 263 270 271 266 239 238 239 SST (C) 30.5 31.0 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.9 31.4 30.1 30.2 29.3 28.3 22.7 21.6 16.8 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 173 173 173 173 172 172 172 173 174 161 146 97 92 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 173 173 170 165 157 167 172 148 154 144 134 90 86 75 72 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -49.9 -49.6 -50.3 -51.1 -51.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 8 12 6 8 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 54 56 59 62 58 56 54 60 64 64 66 69 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 21 21 22 21 20 15 12 9 6 8 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -5 16 8 10 36 13 -9 -70 -60 -116 -24 -15 67 83 70 66 97 200 MB DIV 24 12 17 -5 10 36 30 31 28 7 28 16 11 26 73 49 46 700-850 TADV -16 -7 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 15 2 19 -1 53 48 8 36 22 -7 LAND (KM) 69 43 39 210 293 368 205 -8 -272 -471 -596 -552 -169 166 223 92 525 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.5 24.2 25.8 27.6 29.8 32.2 34.5 36.1 37.0 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.4 83.0 84.5 86.0 87.5 90.0 92.0 93.0 92.7 91.4 88.3 83.5 77.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 16 15 13 12 12 12 13 17 22 27 30 33 34 33 HEAT CONTENT 78 115 149 66 54 66 39 31 7 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 25. 28. 28. 25. 23. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -33. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -11. -16. -21. -26. -23. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 24. 22. 17. 12. 8. 3. 0. -7. -18. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.4 81.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.48 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.63 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.95 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.0% 35.0% 20.2% 14.0% 11.9% 23.7% 22.6% 23.9% Logistic: 12.2% 22.8% 16.1% 12.3% 9.9% 20.0% 24.8% 17.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 38.6% 13.8% 2.2% 0.7% 4.2% 1.4% 0.9% Consensus: 10.8% 32.1% 16.7% 9.5% 7.5% 16.0% 16.3% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 51 54 57 64 70 63 39 31 28 27 28 29 21 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 51 54 61 67 60 36 28 25 24 25 26 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 59 65 58 34 26 23 22 23 24 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 50 56 49 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT