* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 52 56 63 71 77 81 77 76 77 82 86 84 73 V (KT) LAND 45 40 44 46 48 50 58 66 72 75 42 32 28 28 28 29 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 44 45 47 50 54 60 67 74 42 31 28 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 18 13 12 7 11 9 18 19 16 23 43 51 55 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 1 -2 4 -4 -1 1 5 3 0 4 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 327 334 341 352 3 349 20 306 289 257 239 245 224 265 263 261 240 SST (C) 30.0 30.4 31.3 30.6 30.9 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.3 30.8 31.8 31.2 30.2 30.3 28.4 24.2 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 173 175 174 174 174 173 173 172 172 172 172 172 174 175 147 104 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 175 174 174 174 173 173 169 159 164 172 169 154 160 131 94 74 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 -50.4 -51.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 7 11 4 7 0 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 57 59 59 59 58 63 60 63 59 57 52 39 36 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 16 14 13 18 24 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -14 -21 0 12 30 1 -9 -68 -47 -78 38 46 99 90 0 200 MB DIV 29 7 31 30 17 8 37 34 36 57 20 41 46 30 -23 -21 2 700-850 TADV 1 -9 -6 -18 -16 -13 -12 -5 -4 15 5 8 -5 64 8 -37 -44 LAND (KM) 72 -11 21 50 20 108 312 367 225 17 -229 -479 -625 -695 -418 -16 149 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.3 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.8 27.5 29.6 31.8 34.1 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 76.3 78.2 79.9 81.7 84.9 87.8 90.3 92.2 93.5 93.8 93.1 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 11 13 17 21 24 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 68 58 65 64 82 156 53 71 43 43 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 28. 32. 36. 36. 36. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -4. -10. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -5. -8. -10. -5. 3. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 18. 26. 32. 36. 32. 31. 32. 37. 41. 39. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 22.0% 11.9% 9.3% 8.8% 20.0% 22.5% 34.8% Logistic: 6.1% 21.8% 12.6% 9.6% 8.2% 17.9% 26.6% 35.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 11.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 3.5% 6.6% Consensus: 4.7% 18.5% 9.0% 6.4% 5.7% 13.1% 17.5% 25.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 44 46 48 50 58 66 72 75 42 32 28 28 28 29 22 18HR AGO 45 44 48 50 52 54 62 70 76 79 46 36 32 32 32 33 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 55 63 69 72 39 29 25 25 25 26 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 47 55 61 64 31 21 17 17 17 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT