* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 59 64 69 75 84 84 80 74 71 69 67 65 V (KT) LAND 45 38 41 37 34 30 36 40 47 55 41 31 28 27 28 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 38 36 36 33 30 35 39 46 55 44 32 28 27 28 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 13 15 20 12 12 6 14 13 20 19 31 22 26 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 -3 2 -1 4 -3 0 -1 5 6 7 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 307 313 317 326 335 359 351 8 312 301 291 278 308 282 293 273 223 SST (C) 29.1 29.7 30.0 29.7 30.6 30.6 30.8 30.5 30.0 30.6 30.8 30.2 30.2 29.3 28.4 23.6 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 167 173 167 174 174 173 172 170 172 172 172 173 160 147 100 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 167 173 167 174 174 173 167 153 161 162 150 152 139 131 90 78 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 8 11 7 10 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 58 56 59 58 57 56 59 59 63 59 67 71 57 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 23 23 20 16 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 13 6 -6 -27 -23 -19 0 -24 -22 -69 -61 -104 1 124 149 172 200 MB DIV 45 54 50 35 18 9 36 20 36 30 27 54 32 44 71 68 84 700-850 TADV -10 3 2 -6 -10 -14 -16 -12 -7 -4 9 -6 26 -35 -35 33 -110 LAND (KM) -35 -57 24 -16 -43 -44 129 386 242 53 -58 -313 -512 -552 -264 120 290 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.6 23.9 25.3 27.0 28.8 30.9 33.3 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 71.9 73.7 75.5 77.3 80.8 83.9 86.4 88.3 89.8 90.2 89.4 87.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 18 17 14 13 11 11 11 13 15 18 23 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 43 56 69 50 58 65 110 54 51 40 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 27. 31. 34. 34. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 7. 6. 1. -5. -9. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 19. 24. 30. 39. 39. 35. 29. 26. 24. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.6 70.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.47 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.94 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 35.7% 20.1% 11.9% 9.2% 20.1% 22.9% 32.4% Logistic: 21.7% 35.3% 23.0% 21.7% 18.6% 30.7% 32.5% 34.8% Bayesian: 4.1% 30.8% 11.6% 1.6% 0.7% 2.4% 2.2% 16.2% Consensus: 11.9% 33.9% 18.2% 11.7% 9.5% 17.7% 19.2% 27.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 41 37 34 30 36 40 47 55 41 31 28 27 28 31 29 18HR AGO 45 44 47 43 40 36 42 46 53 61 47 37 34 33 34 37 35 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 34 30 36 40 47 55 41 31 28 27 28 31 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 28 34 38 45 53 39 29 26 25 26 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT