* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 60 62 63 62 59 59 57 54 56 57 58 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 60 62 63 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 60 62 63 51 36 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 21 19 13 16 24 30 31 39 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 1 4 -4 2 -2 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 249 261 226 214 224 209 220 226 234 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.5 30.5 30.9 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 171 171 170 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 172 172 163 159 162 170 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 7 9 5 11 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 59 55 52 53 51 52 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 12 13 14 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 23 5 23 23 -6 0 -5 -9 -38 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 53 37 65 50 16 24 13 28 25 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 23 19 4 12 17 9 5 13 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 205 309 415 329 83 -35 -96 -170 -264 -395 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.3 28.3 29.7 30.7 31.3 31.9 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.6 87.0 87.5 87.9 89.1 90.5 92.0 93.5 95.0 96.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 52 45 52 52 54 40 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 23. 27. 30. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. -1. -4. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 4. 2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.3 86.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.52 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 28.0% 13.0% 9.6% 9.2% 12.4% 12.2% 13.7% Logistic: 3.9% 22.7% 12.9% 9.5% 5.3% 7.9% 4.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 17.2% 8.7% 6.4% 4.8% 6.8% 5.5% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 57 60 62 63 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 55 58 60 61 50 34 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 57 46 30 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 48 37 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT