* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 57 59 62 65 69 76 81 82 78 74 71 71 77 71 V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 40 35 31 33 38 44 49 41 32 28 27 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 36 39 34 31 33 37 43 51 45 33 29 27 28 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 12 10 12 16 19 10 13 9 17 16 21 24 13 27 39 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 4 3 -1 -1 2 -4 0 -3 1 3 8 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 262 300 313 316 324 349 3 356 333 323 275 282 281 293 270 259 233 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.7 29.5 29.6 30.7 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.9 30.9 30.3 30.2 28.6 28.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 167 163 165 174 173 173 172 172 171 172 173 174 148 140 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 167 163 165 174 173 173 164 159 164 163 153 153 128 120 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.4 -50.1 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 11 7 11 5 9 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 60 57 61 58 59 59 59 62 61 67 68 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 17 17 18 20 23 23 20 17 14 16 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 14 8 -3 -37 9 -4 4 -20 -37 -78 -82 -62 36 154 186 200 MB DIV 39 54 42 44 37 20 10 28 34 9 40 17 55 48 96 77 22 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -1 3 -6 -12 -14 -14 -10 -5 16 0 30 -20 75 9 -23 LAND (KM) -8 -51 -38 18 -23 -23 59 303 323 110 -22 -171 -374 -630 -547 -257 -4 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.4 28.1 29.9 31.9 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 70.5 72.2 74.0 75.9 79.5 82.7 85.6 87.8 89.5 90.4 90.5 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 19 19 17 15 14 12 10 10 11 14 17 18 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 50 39 59 54 48 62 87 123 51 51 29 6 5 5 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 28. 32. 35. 35. 35. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 3. -2. -7. -10. -9. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 20. 24. 31. 36. 37. 33. 29. 26. 26. 32. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 68.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.52 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.34 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.88 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 36.9% 22.4% 11.5% 9.7% 19.1% 23.8% 32.6% Logistic: 23.7% 43.9% 28.7% 27.6% 21.5% 37.7% 49.7% 55.4% Bayesian: 15.5% 65.1% 32.4% 7.5% 5.1% 12.2% 12.6% 28.8% Consensus: 17.5% 48.6% 27.9% 15.6% 12.1% 23.0% 28.7% 38.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 36 40 35 31 33 38 44 49 41 32 28 27 28 29 29 18HR AGO 45 44 39 43 38 34 36 41 47 52 44 35 31 30 31 32 32 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 40 36 38 43 49 54 46 37 33 32 33 34 34 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 26 28 33 39 44 36 27 23 22 23 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT