* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 57 60 62 66 71 77 84 88 89 86 86 85 88 87 V (KT) LAND 45 48 39 34 40 32 30 35 42 49 53 40 31 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 40 35 40 32 30 36 42 51 59 45 32 28 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 9 8 10 19 8 10 8 10 9 16 19 20 29 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 4 0 -2 0 -2 1 -2 0 -3 0 5 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 247 235 289 294 307 321 359 338 35 304 297 277 245 239 228 251 249 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.2 30.0 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.0 30.7 30.3 30.9 31.5 31.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 156 158 172 169 174 174 173 172 172 171 171 171 171 172 172 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 155 157 172 169 174 174 173 171 158 166 171 166 147 146 145 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 9 12 8 11 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 59 59 58 61 58 55 53 54 52 57 56 59 47 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 15 17 19 20 20 16 16 15 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 32 11 6 -24 -20 -12 6 -15 -16 -70 -67 -78 32 38 50 200 MB DIV 33 42 41 36 42 12 26 17 20 30 30 24 32 51 29 0 -22 700-850 TADV -5 -13 -11 -1 -6 -11 -10 -16 -7 -2 -7 8 -8 20 18 14 -15 LAND (KM) 34 6 -48 -32 22 -55 -33 179 438 227 59 -67 -260 -431 -564 -686 -649 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 21.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 27.0 28.6 30.4 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.5 69.1 70.8 72.5 74.2 77.9 81.3 84.4 87.0 89.2 90.8 91.7 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 18 16 15 13 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 64 47 40 67 59 53 78 139 48 55 41 7 6 5 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 28. 32. 36. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 2. -4. -5. -6. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 21. 26. 32. 39. 43. 44. 41. 41. 40. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.9 67.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 8.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.65 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 40.1% 26.1% 16.7% 11.4% 24.7% 25.4% 37.4% Logistic: 11.3% 34.1% 20.0% 19.5% 14.2% 42.8% 44.7% 51.5% Bayesian: 13.2% 42.4% 13.3% 2.8% 0.4% 14.3% 6.5% 28.2% Consensus: 12.6% 38.8% 19.8% 13.0% 8.6% 27.3% 25.5% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 39 34 40 32 30 35 42 49 53 40 31 28 27 27 28 18HR AGO 45 44 35 30 36 28 26 31 38 45 49 36 27 24 23 23 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 42 34 32 37 44 51 55 42 33 30 29 29 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 33 31 36 43 50 54 41 32 29 28 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT