* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 73 79 79 78 72 66 61 58 57 57 58 59 58 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 73 79 79 78 72 66 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 75 80 86 87 84 79 75 45 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 16 21 20 18 22 22 26 30 28 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 -5 3 -1 7 0 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 223 211 239 253 204 220 200 211 209 227 236 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.4 30.7 30.8 31.0 30.9 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 172 171 171 170 170 169 168 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 168 168 170 171 168 158 155 158 156 156 153 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 9 6 10 8 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 62 62 58 59 58 59 59 60 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 12 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 22 36 25 13 29 17 23 16 14 -22 -23 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 54 70 57 44 70 20 41 12 41 51 21 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 19 14 6 12 8 6 8 0 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 170 110 106 149 230 405 257 157 106 2 -89 -145 -214 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.6 25.2 26.8 28.0 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.6 86.1 86.6 87.2 88.6 90.1 91.8 93.5 94.9 96.0 96.8 97.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 127 100 67 54 50 57 56 39 54 55 18 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 15. 18. 24. 24. 23. 17. 11. 6. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 85.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 15.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.62 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.54 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.86 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.0% 61.7% 46.6% 35.6% 27.5% 47.3% 36.9% 23.6% Logistic: 26.6% 61.3% 45.5% 32.5% 17.1% 38.8% 25.3% 12.2% Bayesian: 22.1% 51.2% 21.7% 21.3% 3.7% 4.7% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 28.6% 58.1% 37.9% 29.8% 16.1% 30.3% 21.1% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 7( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 66 70 73 79 79 78 72 66 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 66 72 72 71 65 59 34 24 21 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 64 64 63 57 51 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 54 54 53 47 41 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT