* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 37 42 47 55 60 71 74 80 86 80 76 72 69 V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 29 28 29 28 34 39 50 53 44 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 30 29 28 28 27 31 34 39 46 39 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 9 10 8 9 12 7 12 9 16 24 24 25 22 33 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 -7 1 -6 -2 3 5 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 214 210 269 290 301 340 335 346 302 303 286 291 270 291 268 254 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.1 30.0 29.7 30.7 30.8 30.6 30.4 30.6 31.2 31.3 31.1 30.3 30.3 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 156 156 172 167 174 173 173 172 172 171 171 171 172 173 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 161 155 155 172 166 174 173 171 162 162 168 167 161 149 149 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.3 -51.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 11 7 11 5 8 2 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 62 60 59 59 61 58 61 62 63 65 62 65 64 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 16 16 18 21 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 57 43 14 0 -30 -3 -13 -2 -29 -48 -98 -98 -40 -47 -9 200 MB DIV 12 41 60 46 24 32 26 35 19 31 27 23 22 42 61 81 34 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -17 -10 -3 -10 -15 -11 -19 -4 -16 13 -8 15 10 9 -31 LAND (KM) 33 58 -22 -78 -14 -30 -53 91 348 277 90 -41 -197 -325 -467 -598 -668 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.3 30.0 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.8 69.4 71.1 72.8 76.4 80.0 83.2 85.9 88.2 90.1 91.3 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 18 17 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 82 60 44 39 65 50 63 88 86 52 42 14 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 31. 37. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -1. -2. 0. 4. -3. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 20. 25. 36. 39. 45. 51. 45. 41. 38. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 66.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.98 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 8.9% 6.7% 6.0% 10.2% 12.8% 30.2% Logistic: 1.7% 6.6% 2.6% 2.0% 1.3% 9.5% 24.3% 38.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 7.2% Consensus: 0.9% 7.0% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 6.6% 12.7% 25.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 31 29 28 29 28 34 39 50 53 44 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 31 29 28 29 28 34 39 50 53 44 33 29 27 27 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 29 28 34 39 50 53 44 33 29 27 27 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 24 30 35 46 49 40 29 25 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT