* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 45 47 48 49 53 57 59 61 60 64 65 70 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 40 44 45 47 47 49 48 52 54 56 55 59 60 41 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 44 49 45 49 55 61 64 66 68 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 19 13 10 5 4 14 12 19 10 11 15 17 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 3 5 -4 1 -2 -1 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 227 228 254 269 201 300 330 3 360 10 10 339 298 297 270 246 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 156 157 159 154 163 168 173 173 172 171 171 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 156 157 159 154 163 166 173 173 162 154 151 151 148 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 10 7 10 6 11 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 58 60 63 64 63 65 66 64 65 62 57 57 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 6 7 5 6 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 13 19 22 28 -2 -21 -49 -34 -55 -49 -63 -71 -101 -60 -62 200 MB DIV 30 19 -12 -8 10 31 11 3 -3 7 -1 5 5 23 3 23 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -11 -22 -17 -9 -13 -3 -14 -15 -5 -17 4 -4 1 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 672 493 314 129 0 3 59 16 24 178 261 201 34 -103 -249 -383 -519 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.6 28.3 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.1 62.8 64.5 66.2 69.8 73.4 77.1 80.3 83.0 85.1 86.6 87.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 18 18 17 16 14 12 10 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 44 47 66 65 38 50 54 68 52 56 51 35 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -14. -14. -17. -16. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 20. 24. 25. 30. 29. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 59.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.45 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.86 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 16.8% 11.2% 9.1% 8.0% 11.9% 15.8% 31.5% Logistic: 8.2% 15.2% 10.5% 10.7% 4.9% 21.5% 27.8% 55.9% Bayesian: 5.7% 12.1% 6.9% 1.0% 0.2% 9.1% 16.0% 31.2% Consensus: 7.0% 14.7% 9.5% 6.9% 4.4% 14.2% 19.9% 39.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 45 47 47 49 48 52 54 56 55 59 60 41 31 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 44 43 47 49 51 50 54 55 36 26 23 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 40 39 43 45 47 46 50 51 32 22 19 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 31 35 37 39 38 42 43 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT