* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 34 36 39 44 48 51 54 57 61 63 67 63 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 34 36 39 44 48 51 42 48 51 54 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 33 39 41 44 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 7 13 13 8 8 6 17 13 18 15 19 20 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 6 2 3 -1 4 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -3 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 228 245 259 238 229 263 228 322 327 4 1 4 343 340 303 325 313 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 30.1 30.7 31.3 30.8 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 148 148 151 156 159 159 174 173 172 171 170 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 147 145 148 153 157 156 170 173 172 166 148 143 141 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 11 7 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 57 55 56 59 60 61 62 64 64 65 59 53 51 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 8 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 20 14 7 -6 4 -30 -45 -86 -78 -99 -66 -68 -57 -98 -79 200 MB DIV 46 33 22 1 -13 -10 7 1 -10 -15 22 7 22 4 16 9 25 700-850 TADV -11 -1 2 -4 -10 -5 -15 -7 -12 -14 -5 -15 2 -8 3 -2 21 LAND (KM) 918 847 709 538 373 137 140 190 203 173 -11 67 105 5 -77 -227 -355 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.6 23.0 24.4 26.0 27.5 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 57.3 59.0 60.6 62.2 65.4 68.8 72.4 75.9 79.0 81.5 83.4 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 15 13 10 8 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 49 57 44 45 61 52 62 67 77 53 62 35 35 19 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -10. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 31. 33. 37. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 55.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.88 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.4% 8.9% 6.9% 6.1% 9.2% 11.1% 21.9% Logistic: 2.6% 7.6% 4.6% 3.3% 1.3% 5.3% 8.4% 23.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 6.8% Consensus: 2.6% 8.0% 5.0% 3.5% 2.5% 5.1% 6.7% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 34 36 39 44 48 51 42 48 51 54 37 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 32 34 37 42 46 49 40 46 49 52 35 28 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 30 33 38 42 45 36 42 45 48 31 24 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 25 30 34 37 28 34 37 40 23 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT