* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 41 44 47 54 56 64 68 72 74 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 41 44 47 54 56 58 62 67 56 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 31 33 36 42 46 51 55 49 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 17 14 9 16 4 7 1 11 14 13 11 15 15 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 1 6 3 4 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 217 235 257 265 246 246 246 277 18 317 354 328 340 322 293 306 287 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.5 30.5 31.1 30.9 30.4 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 148 148 148 154 157 158 163 174 173 172 171 170 170 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 148 147 146 151 155 155 158 174 173 172 156 146 146 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 57 55 59 61 60 62 62 63 67 64 62 56 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 11 14 14 14 15 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 30 19 9 0 4 0 -28 -65 -72 -53 -16 -15 -10 -52 -35 200 MB DIV 77 52 45 29 4 -10 24 6 12 -9 24 36 34 6 7 8 37 700-850 TADV -11 -8 0 5 -2 -3 -8 -19 -11 -11 -17 -6 1 -2 -1 3 18 LAND (KM) 1043 939 874 728 550 240 200 159 213 186 32 57 163 60 -27 -145 -236 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.2 22.4 23.7 25.0 26.5 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.4 55.3 57.1 58.8 60.5 63.8 67.0 70.6 74.1 77.5 80.4 82.7 84.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 17 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 49 58 47 76 71 51 56 77 71 96 37 33 38 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -5. -8. -5. -6. -6. -5. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 24. 26. 34. 38. 42. 44. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 53.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.0% 9.2% 7.0% 6.2% 9.4% 10.9% 20.8% Logistic: 2.9% 10.0% 5.9% 4.6% 1.9% 6.6% 6.7% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 4.2% Consensus: 2.8% 8.7% 5.4% 3.9% 2.7% 5.5% 6.1% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 37 41 44 47 54 56 58 62 67 56 37 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 39 42 45 52 54 56 60 65 54 35 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 35 38 41 48 50 52 56 61 50 31 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 27 30 33 40 42 44 48 53 42 23 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT