* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 104 102 98 92 88 81 72 64 55 47 37 28 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 104 102 98 92 88 81 72 64 55 47 37 28 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 107 104 101 97 90 83 74 64 52 43 34 28 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 9 5 5 8 8 11 15 12 20 22 21 23 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 1 1 5 7 10 4 10 3 7 6 6 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 244 241 242 239 268 173 196 146 183 186 201 204 193 193 211 217 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.7 24.6 24.1 22.7 22.0 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.4 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 141 138 138 137 130 108 103 89 81 74 72 69 63 62 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.2 -50.6 -49.7 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -50.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 6 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 69 65 57 59 56 56 51 50 46 42 36 32 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 25 25 26 24 24 21 19 17 15 14 11 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 48 69 77 56 61 66 26 27 12 20 28 22 27 14 14 200 MB DIV 82 78 71 85 85 41 25 2 4 -2 2 20 -5 21 3 12 3 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -6 -4 -4 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 0 -2 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 355 357 279 224 182 177 185 212 277 297 398 481 536 568 545 556 586 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.4 23.2 24.0 25.1 26.2 27.3 28.4 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.3 109.8 110.3 110.7 111.7 112.8 114.2 115.8 117.4 119.0 120.5 121.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 15 11 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -26. -35. -43. -50. -56. -62. -67. -73. -79. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -22. -29. -38. -46. -55. -63. -73. -82. -92.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.1 108.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.63 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.58 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 14.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##