* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 85 94 104 116 123 121 113 102 90 77 68 56 47 37 28 V (KT) LAND 65 75 85 94 104 116 123 121 113 102 90 77 68 56 47 37 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 75 85 95 104 120 129 123 107 93 78 61 49 38 30 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 2 4 6 3 4 6 11 15 17 13 12 17 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -2 -3 -7 -8 -6 -1 0 3 1 4 0 8 0 9 1 SHEAR DIR 5 28 53 101 186 144 183 155 135 145 141 152 173 165 174 190 199 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.0 27.5 26.6 26.4 25.0 23.7 23.4 22.1 21.5 21.0 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 166 163 159 154 138 129 127 113 99 96 82 76 70 66 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 7 7 8 6 7 5 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 78 78 75 74 70 62 54 56 52 54 48 48 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 22 24 25 29 31 31 30 28 26 25 21 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 21 18 33 54 53 77 76 74 65 52 46 41 47 30 38 200 MB DIV 59 98 121 116 123 115 85 87 57 27 -5 -3 3 -2 10 -5 8 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -7 -7 -3 0 0 -3 -6 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 403 391 372 375 369 424 379 274 276 256 333 371 439 567 643 682 655 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.8 18.2 19.5 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 103.5 104.9 106.1 107.2 109.0 110.3 111.4 112.6 114.0 115.5 117.2 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 32 28 30 19 17 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 17. 16. 13. 10. 8. 3. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 20. 29. 39. 51. 58. 56. 48. 37. 25. 12. 3. -9. -18. -28. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.8 102.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 21.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 20.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.76 17.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.76 16.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -21.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 17.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 13.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.35 3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 7.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 94% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 18.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 91% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 75.4% 95.2% 94.2% 93.2% 78.6% 91.2% 75.3% 41.7% Logistic: 60.3% 79.9% 75.1% 66.7% 39.5% 66.4% 52.6% 6.5% Bayesian: 71.9% 80.1% 87.9% 82.5% 31.0% 70.5% 15.5% 0.4% Consensus: 69.2% 85.0% 85.7% 80.8% 49.7% 76.0% 47.8% 16.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##