* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 31 36 40 44 46 49 50 51 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 31 36 40 44 46 49 50 51 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 26 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 21 18 18 15 17 8 10 5 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 46 50 51 47 54 70 84 49 74 59 114 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 140 140 141 140 139 138 138 138 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 55 52 54 55 57 54 50 49 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -23 -34 -46 -40 -33 -9 1 34 48 66 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -19 -20 -24 -2 -4 -2 17 -11 -21 -26 -17 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2292 2261 2230 2191 2152 2080 2009 1953 1930 1913 1897 1882 1868 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 134.3 134.5 134.9 135.2 135.9 136.7 137.4 137.8 138.1 138.4 138.7 139.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 134.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 0.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.19 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##