* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 26 27 27 26 29 31 33 34 38 39 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 26 27 27 26 29 31 33 34 38 39 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 27 24 21 21 18 16 18 16 11 8 5 2 2 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 0 1 3 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 43 55 56 59 54 61 51 64 82 95 91 93 24 356 184 163 123 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 141 140 141 139 137 137 137 137 137 136 135 135 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 53 55 54 55 59 58 56 53 50 49 46 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 14 7 -11 -14 -33 -37 -16 4 21 40 56 74 93 97 76 200 MB DIV -12 -18 -14 -6 -17 -28 -1 -19 12 25 -13 -30 -28 -17 0 5 1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2364 2344 2325 2299 2273 2231 2179 2125 2077 2041 2008 1994 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.4 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.7 133.9 134.0 134.2 134.4 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.2 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 133.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##