* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 34 30 26 24 23 24 26 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 35 33 29 34 28 26 10 16 7 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 4 5 3 2 -3 1 -4 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 255 261 263 258 272 301 288 297 268 245 281 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 153 154 155 154 159 164 167 164 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 145 143 143 141 137 138 140 144 141 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 49 50 49 52 53 57 59 61 62 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -31 -36 -47 -52 -66 -87 -66 -60 -59 -66 -79 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 9 16 14 21 9 9 21 31 17 28 13 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 1 5 8 -1 4 1 5 0 3 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 518 435 382 373 405 491 595 738 883 1004 985 1020 1035 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.5 22.1 23.4 24.9 26.3 27.6 28.8 30.3 32.0 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.1 63.2 64.3 65.4 67.3 68.5 69.1 69.0 68.5 67.3 65.6 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 8 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 48 56 67 66 71 31 38 38 33 29 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. 0. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 61.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 50 51 52 51 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 50 51 52 51 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 31 29 29 31 34 38 42 46 48 49 50 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 25 25 27 30 34 38 42 44 45 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT