* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 41 37 35 33 37 37 43 48 52 55 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 41 37 35 33 37 37 43 48 52 55 57 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 36 32 29 27 27 29 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 23 22 29 34 30 23 11 10 6 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 7 0 2 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 261 266 257 259 273 263 287 290 319 158 174 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 147 147 146 151 153 153 159 165 167 158 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 141 140 138 141 140 136 139 142 144 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 51 51 50 53 53 54 58 62 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 8 7 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -9 -20 -27 -29 -58 -63 -77 -79 -63 -54 -67 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 45 38 42 33 9 8 7 9 33 23 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 8 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 3 5 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 919 807 682 576 491 432 545 641 791 941 1064 1024 1019 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.9 23.4 24.9 26.5 27.9 29.5 31.3 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.8 58.0 59.3 60.5 61.7 64.0 65.9 67.2 67.6 67.6 67.0 66.0 65.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 54 46 37 40 66 43 29 37 35 32 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -3. -3. 3. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 56.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.6% 8.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 4.7% 3.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.8% 3.9% 3.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 41 37 35 33 37 37 43 48 52 55 57 59 59 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 39 35 33 31 35 35 41 46 50 53 55 57 57 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 32 30 28 32 32 38 43 47 50 52 54 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 25 23 21 25 25 31 36 40 43 45 47 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT