* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 30 30 30 33 34 36 38 40 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 30 30 30 33 34 36 38 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 23 24 24 26 28 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 20 18 21 22 18 17 13 9 6 7 6 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 67 73 71 68 65 47 48 52 49 54 43 22 42 100 124 126 122 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 138 140 139 138 136 135 134 132 133 133 134 134 136 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 55 53 55 49 49 50 51 49 49 48 48 45 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -5 0 8 12 22 19 23 14 1 -6 -4 -1 3 11 15 16 200 MB DIV 21 21 13 0 -2 18 -10 -16 -25 5 1 6 -10 -8 8 -5 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2237 2280 2322 2358 2393 2374 2320 2268 2241 2203 2166 2132 2090 2039 2005 1961 1931 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.4 131.9 132.3 132.7 133.3 133.8 134.2 134.4 134.7 135.0 135.3 135.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 130.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 12.5% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##