* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 32 34 35 35 35 32 33 34 36 38 40 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 32 34 35 35 35 32 33 34 36 38 40 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 17 19 20 21 24 19 19 15 12 10 6 5 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 2 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 38 47 65 74 66 68 52 53 47 31 40 37 31 54 115 182 208 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 136 137 140 140 139 138 137 135 134 134 134 133 131 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 60 59 55 56 49 50 50 51 47 48 44 44 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -17 -10 -1 18 16 3 3 -5 -13 -25 -14 -12 -3 12 20 200 MB DIV 21 27 20 38 26 10 8 -13 -35 -38 -21 -29 -23 -22 -3 6 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2182 2221 2261 2303 2346 2402 2323 2272 2227 2190 2152 2114 2066 2008 1950 1892 1824 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.2 130.8 131.4 132.0 133.0 133.8 134.3 134.7 135.0 135.3 135.6 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 129.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.88 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.2% 9.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.7% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##