* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 52 52 53 53 52 53 53 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 52 52 53 53 52 53 53 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 53 57 57 54 50 47 44 43 44 47 54 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 6 9 9 19 24 27 25 22 21 12 9 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 6 8 7 0 3 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 63 357 310 296 282 273 257 272 247 258 223 256 178 169 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 142 144 147 145 151 154 154 155 154 163 165 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 140 141 143 145 141 144 145 141 139 136 142 142 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 54 54 54 53 55 55 54 55 57 58 61 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 36 32 27 6 -22 -30 -50 -62 -73 -85 -80 -89 -91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 0 -1 12 16 44 42 28 17 10 -3 10 1 6 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 5 8 9 5 1 1 1 2 4 1 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1026 1023 1028 1047 959 849 707 478 381 448 554 663 815 982 962 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 17.0 18.4 19.7 21.1 22.5 23.9 25.4 26.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.9 51.1 52.4 53.7 56.4 59.0 61.4 63.6 65.5 67.0 68.0 68.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 21 32 41 44 51 46 65 58 45 28 33 32 35 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 13. 13. 17. 20. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.73 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.72 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.5% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 13.1% 20.2% Logistic: 4.4% 9.5% 7.2% 2.4% 0.5% 3.3% 2.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 3.9% 13.6% 10.3% 0.2% 0.3% 5.3% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.6% 12.9% 9.3% 0.9% 0.3% 6.4% 5.7% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 48 51 52 52 53 53 52 53 53 57 60 64 66 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 47 48 48 49 49 48 49 49 53 56 60 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 43 43 44 44 43 44 44 48 51 55 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 35 35 36 36 35 36 36 40 43 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT