* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 41 47 52 52 55 53 54 57 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 41 47 52 52 55 53 54 57 59 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 38 39 39 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 11 11 7 7 9 11 11 21 21 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 4 4 6 2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 107 97 112 121 302 296 286 259 279 253 266 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 136 135 136 139 142 145 145 148 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 135 134 135 138 140 142 140 142 146 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 62 61 55 56 56 56 57 56 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 34 34 34 27 27 19 3 -17 -24 -43 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 12 -5 -9 -13 -41 -4 29 79 48 46 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 5 9 14 2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1430 1341 1261 1200 1141 1066 1053 1019 895 792 536 382 365 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.6 14.6 15.8 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.1 43.4 44.6 45.8 48.2 50.7 53.1 55.7 58.2 60.7 62.9 65.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 25 19 22 27 24 20 39 36 56 42 47 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -10. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 22. 25. 23. 24. 27. 29. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 40.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.77 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 11.4% 22.5% Logistic: 2.5% 10.7% 5.0% 1.5% 1.1% 5.3% 13.9% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.1% 11.6% 4.7% 0.5% 0.4% 4.9% 8.5% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 36 41 47 52 52 55 53 54 57 59 62 65 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 40 46 51 51 54 52 53 56 58 61 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 37 43 48 48 51 49 50 53 55 58 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 30 36 41 41 44 42 43 46 48 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT