* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 63 69 79 83 80 70 62 51 42 35 29 24 23 22 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 63 69 79 83 80 70 62 51 42 35 29 24 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 64 73 75 71 62 51 42 34 29 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 12 10 3 4 7 14 11 13 17 13 12 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 -1 -5 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 316 331 329 327 276 258 163 194 208 178 195 230 229 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.1 29.5 29.0 28.8 28.2 26.7 25.4 24.8 24.3 24.4 24.3 23.9 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 168 161 156 154 147 132 118 111 105 106 105 101 110 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 71 69 68 65 61 58 58 55 51 46 42 38 36 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 15 16 18 20 20 17 15 11 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 20 12 18 36 -15 -5 -33 -13 5 42 48 63 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 26 24 10 27 33 5 4 19 33 26 14 0 6 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -11 -8 -9 -9 2 0 15 7 9 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 318 388 471 465 523 634 777 922 1054 1187 1330 1492 1673 1854 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.1 20.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.9 113.6 116.1 118.6 120.7 122.7 124.4 125.9 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 7 8 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 29 18 14 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 7. 5. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 24. 34. 38. 35. 25. 17. 6. -3. -10. -16. -21. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.47 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 40.9% 29.1% 20.6% 14.0% 27.9% 33.1% 13.9% Logistic: 15.8% 39.3% 19.5% 11.5% 6.7% 19.3% 6.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 22.8% 2.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 34.3% 17.1% 11.0% 7.3% 16.2% 13.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##