* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 63 61 60 47 30 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 63 45 40 31 30 29 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 63 63 46 40 31 30 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 24 24 25 31 50 59 59 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 0 0 6 0 -3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 284 280 256 249 218 207 215 229 255 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.9 30.2 25.6 16.7 17.7 14.1 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 161 161 152 176 115 76 78 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 140 141 135 163 103 72 73 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.7 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 -50.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 6 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 57 58 56 57 53 49 48 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 18 20 15 8 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -32 -8 -12 -6 -2 24 24 15 20 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 18 39 57 78 98 72 62 34 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 6 15 29 18 36 34 1 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 101 136 173 88 -42 19 -67 -32 -172 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.0 29.9 31.1 32.3 35.9 40.2 44.3 48.2 52.1 56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.8 79.8 79.4 79.0 77.0 73.8 70.1 65.7 60.7 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 16 23 25 25 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 35 37 43 29 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -17. -25. -28. -29. -33. -37. -42. -46. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 2. -5. -15. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -13. -30. -31. -35. -40. -46. -52. -57. -61. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.1% 9.5% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.3% 4.9% 3.5% 1.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.5% 4.8% 3.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 62 63 45 40 31 30 29 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 60 61 43 38 29 28 27 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 40 35 26 25 24 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 33 28 19 18 17 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT