* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 62 62 61 53 34 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 62 53 36 31 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 63 63 55 36 31 30 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 27 25 25 28 46 61 66 54 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 -4 6 2 0 1 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 279 277 270 255 230 206 209 220 230 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.4 27.4 27.2 21.2 16.7 13.6 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 157 160 160 132 131 88 75 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 136 139 141 119 118 81 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.6 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 10 6 8 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 58 57 59 54 49 48 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 17 18 19 20 19 11 6 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -22 -30 0 -8 3 43 31 61 65 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 32 22 43 56 82 84 61 51 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 12 10 23 32 30 2 72 -41 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 67 70 124 133 -36 -36 -96 -194 11 -189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.2 29.0 30.1 31.1 34.2 38.1 42.4 46.5 50.1 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.9 80.1 80.0 79.9 78.5 75.8 72.2 68.5 64.9 61.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 13 20 24 25 23 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 35 32 36 37 13 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -16. -24. -30. -32. -36. -40. -46. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -14. -22. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -7. -26. -43. -44. -50. -55. -60. -64. -67. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.4 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.22 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.3% 10.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 6.9% 4.2% 3.5% 1.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.4% 4.9% 4.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 62 53 36 31 30 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 60 51 34 29 28 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 47 30 25 24 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 41 24 19 18 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT