* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 69 66 64 61 64 66 62 51 35 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 69 66 64 61 64 49 49 38 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 72 70 66 64 63 49 51 44 31 30 29 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 23 26 25 21 22 15 21 37 52 56 52 49 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 3 1 3 -1 0 2 12 2 0 -4 -8 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 274 266 275 290 269 282 262 209 210 216 234 247 255 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.2 28.1 28.4 26.5 21.4 20.2 16.7 13.4 10.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 158 163 165 158 156 140 146 123 88 83 74 69 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 140 142 143 136 135 124 130 109 80 76 69 66 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -51.4 -52.5 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 53 52 55 58 56 53 52 49 49 48 46 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 18 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 13 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -48 -49 -67 -65 -27 -45 -30 -46 -1 -11 -39 -41 6 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 8 2 -4 0 31 28 69 80 62 39 19 22 12 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 16 19 7 3 7 7 21 14 16 20 6 16 9 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 247 221 137 89 49 46 122 62 -46 103 101 -14 13 -30 244 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.0 28.5 30.3 32.8 36.0 39.6 43.0 46.0 48.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.1 78.8 79.2 79.6 80.2 80.1 78.8 76.3 73.0 69.0 64.1 59.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 7 8 8 11 16 21 22 23 21 18 16 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 50 44 41 41 32 35 20 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -10. -13. -18. -23. -28. -31. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -12. -20. -24. -26. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -11. -9. -13. -24. -40. -53. -62. -69. -71. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.3 77.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.38 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 9.1% 6.7% 6.2% 0.0% 6.7% 5.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 72 69 66 64 61 64 49 49 38 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 69 66 64 61 64 49 49 38 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 65 63 60 63 48 48 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 60 57 60 45 45 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT